Track Record
Every alerted opportunity is paper-traded: opened at the published rate, funding accrued at live rates on every run, then closed at the end of its holding window. No real capital, no survivorship filtering, and nothing is removed after the fact — including the generation below that lost money.
Generation v1 — retired
v1 ranked opportunities on the instantaneous funding spread and held 7 days. It does not work, and the numbers say so:
| Closed trades | 500 |
| Avg predicted net APR | 21.28% |
| Avg realized net APR | -4.43% |
| Win rate (realized > 0) | 26.2% |
| Realized / predicted | -20.84% |
Two causes, both measurable. Funding spikes mean-revert within hours, so only about a fifth of the spread the snapshot advertised was ever earned. And a 7-day holding period charges roughly 7.6% APR in round-trip taker fees against a carry that realized around 5% — the trade was under water before the market did anything.
Generation v2 — current
v2 ranks on the trailing multi-day mean spread rather
than the latest print, and holds longer so the same round trip is amortized over more
carry. Over 68 days of stored history the earned fraction of the predicted spread rises
from ~19% to ~49%, which also makes the published number roughly calibrated instead of
five times optimistic. Method and sweeps: tools/backtest.py in the repo.
| Closed trades | 53 |
| Open positions | 38 |
| Avg predicted net APR | 8.22% |
| Avg realized net APR | 1.59% |
| Win rate (realized > 0) | 62.26% |
| Realized / predicted | 19.35% |
Recent closed trades
| Coin | Short | Long | Predicted APR | Realized APR | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | extended | dydx | 7.68% | 8.39% | 2026-11-06 18:58 |
| SOL | extended | dydx | 9.26% | -0.68% | 2026-11-04 06:52 |
| BNB | hyperliquid | extended | 2.2% | -5.3% | 2026-11-01 20:16 |
| LIT | pacifica | extended | 15.37% | 3.27% | 2026-10-30 13:21 |
| HYPE | pacifica | paradex | 2.6% | 4.32% | 2026-10-30 06:14 |
| SOL | hyperliquid | dydx | 6.28% | 1.49% | 2026-10-29 01:36 |
| PAXG | hyperliquid | pacifica | 8.7% | 1.04% | 2026-10-29 01:36 |
| HYPE | pacifica | hyperliquid | 4.24% | -0.63% | 2026-10-26 23:02 |
| LIT | pacifica | hyperliquid | 0.29% | 9.38% | 2026-10-26 18:49 |
| LIT | extended | hyperliquid | 0.83% | 0.68% | 2026-10-26 12:22 |
| XRP | hyperliquid | dydx | 19.79% | 6.84% | 2026-10-25 17:26 |
| BTC | pacifica | dydx | 8.0% | 4.57% | 2026-10-25 03:28 |
| SAND | hyperliquid | extended | 3.84% | 11.73% | 2026-10-23 16:39 |
| ETH | pacifica | dydx | 9.26% | 4.19% | 2026-10-23 06:19 |
| PUMP | hyperliquid | pacifica | 15.7% | -3.0% | 2026-10-21 17:32 |
| ETH | hyperliquid | dydx | 15.49% | 2.45% | 2026-10-20 15:38 |
| BTC | paradex | dydx | 6.99% | 5.8% | 2026-10-20 11:00 |
| ADA | extended | hyperliquid | 0.79% | 11.21% | 2026-10-20 05:42 |
| XAU | pacifica | extended | 0.52% | -3.91% | 2026-10-20 00:31 |
| XMR | extended | hyperliquid | 15.52% | 3.04% | 2026-10-20 00:31 |
| JUP | hyperliquid | pacifica | 13.86% | -7.49% | 2026-10-18 12:44 |
| JUP | extended | pacifica | 16.61% | 0.22% | 2026-10-16 18:39 |
| ADA | hyperliquid | extended | 3.82% | -14.05% | 2026-10-16 09:31 |
| TIA | hyperliquid | extended | 5.53% | -2.46% | 2026-10-16 00:11 |
| XAG | extended | pacifica | 7.34% | -3.41% | 2026-10-15 18:54 |
| LINK | hyperliquid | extended | 8.53% | -2.1% | 2026-10-15 18:54 |
| LIT | hyperliquid | pacifica | 14.0% | -7.95% | 2026-10-15 14:42 |
| ZEC | hyperliquid | pacifica | 18.52% | -0.61% | 2026-10-15 14:42 |
| SOL | dydx | pacifica | 12.07% | -5.85% | 2026-10-15 00:01 |
| LTC | hyperliquid | extended | 9.56% | -3.0% | 2026-10-14 21:20 |
| SUI | hyperliquid | extended | 15.43% | -0.25% | 2026-10-14 06:31 |
| SOL | hyperliquid | pacifica | 9.17% | 6.15% | 2026-10-13 17:43 |
| AVAX | hyperliquid | extended | 9.48% | 0.52% | 2026-10-13 02:52 |
| BTC | hyperliquid | dydx | 7.49% | 5.63% | 2026-10-12 21:35 |
| HYPE | hyperliquid | pacifica | 3.46% | -6.05% | 2026-10-12 12:47 |
| SOL | extended | pacifica | 9.07% | 5.66% | 2026-10-11 15:53 |
| HYPE | extended | pacifica | 6.14% | -5.37% | 2026-10-10 15:33 |
| LTC | hyperliquid | pacifica | 5.65% | 1.25% | 2026-10-10 02:34 |
| XRP | extended | dydx | 8.35% | 11.57% | 2026-10-09 13:40 |
| PUMP | extended | pacifica | 16.11% | 2.09% | 2026-10-09 06:30 |
| ETH | extended | dydx | 6.89% | -0.24% | 2026-10-09 06:30 |
| PAXG | pacifica | hyperliquid | 0.77% | -7.39% | 2026-10-08 13:56 |
| SOL | extended | dydx | 5.85% | 4.51% | 2026-10-08 13:56 |
| HYPE | extended | hyperliquid | 5.43% | -3.67% | 2026-10-07 14:15 |
| SOL | hyperliquid | dydx | 2.58% | 6.02% | 2026-10-07 06:53 |
| ZEC | extended | pacifica | 10.59% | 2.45% | 2026-10-05 15:08 |
| XRP | hyperliquid | dydx | 2.51% | 12.61% | 2026-10-04 13:44 |
| NEAR | hyperliquid | extended | 5.68% | 6.73% | 2026-10-04 13:44 |
| HYPE | extended | paradex | 3.59% | 3.65% | 2026-10-04 07:50 |
| BTC | pacifica | dydx | 7.25% | 6.41% | 2026-10-04 01:50 |
What this record does not include
Costs here are taker fees only. Slippage is not modelled, and on the liquidity-verified universe the entire edge fits inside roughly 4-5 basis points of spread crossing per leg per side — cross the book any wider than that and the strategy is flat to negative again. Funding-rate arbitrage on major pairs is a thin-margin trade, and anyone quoting you a big number on BTC or ETH is quoting a spread they have not paid to cross. Realized APR annualizes actual funding earned over the holding window minus round-trip taker fees, sampled at the run cadence. Past results do not predict future ones.